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Solar PV in the United States has seen tremendous growth in the last six years. From a cumulative capacity of 32.96 GWac in 2016, the United States’ solar PV capacity reached 110.11 GWac at the end of 2022, exhibiting a CAGR of 22.5%. California is the leading state in terms of installed solar PV capacity followed by Texas, Florida, North Carolina, etc. In terms of solar PV installed capacity and generation, United States stands at 2nd place globally, and comes after China.
Various government policies at the federal and state level have helped in the rise of solar PV in the United States. Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which helps in reducing the upfront cost of solar PV systems for homeowners and commercial users, and net-metering are two most important policies which have contributed in the growth of small-scale solar PV in the United States. At the end of 2022, the installed small-scale solar PV capacity reached 39.5 GWac. It is projected that 13% of homes in the United States will have a rooftop solar PV system by 2030. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimations, the total national technical potential of rooftop solar PV in the United States is 1,118 GW.
As the country move towards achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, and a net-zero economy by 2050, solar PV is poised to play a significant role in the United States energy sector.
Forecast
There was a dip in the utility-scale capacity in the year 2022 due to pandemic-related delays, trade law enforcement, supply chain issues, and price hikes for components and shipping. However, 2023 is set to become the best ever year for utility-scale capacity. Buoyed by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and statewide requests for proposals for renewable energy, it is estimated that developers will deploy up to 29.1 GW of solar PV capacity in the year 2023, according to EIA.
The residential market in the United States is going to take a hit in 2023, as California – the largest residential market in United States – is set to introduce the Net-metering 3.0, which will significantly reduce net metering compensation rates for new California solar customers (by about 75%).
With all these factors, EUPD Research estimates that the cumulative solar PV capacity in the United States is expected to reach approximately 244 GWac by 2027. During 2023-27, the country is expected to add about 132 GWac of solar PV capacity. The highest capacity addition will be in the utility segment, followed by residential, commercial and industrial segments.
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